Ol Kalou By-Election: Poll Shows Gachagua-Backed DCP Candidate Leading Ruto’s UDA
A new opinion poll shows DCP candidate Sammy Douglas Kamau Waweru with a commanding lead over UDA’s Samuel Muchina Nyagah ahead of the July 16 Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election.
Politrack Africa put Waweru at 70.2% against Muchina’s 23.1%, based on interviews with 3,018 registered voters conducted between July 1 and 3, according to TUKO.co.ke’s report on the poll.
The seat fell vacant after MP David Kiaraho died in March. But the contest has grown into something bigger: a proxy fight between President William Ruto’s UDA and former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua’s DCP for influence in Mt Kenya, a region that gave Ruto close to 87% of its vote in 2022 but has since cooled on him following Gachagua’s impeachment in late 2024, as Daily Nation’s coverage of the race notes. Jubilee’s Wilson Kigwa, backed by former president Uhuru Kenyatta and Fred Matiang’i, is also in the race, polling at 2.4%.
What the numbers show
Politrack Africa’s survey covered all five wards of the constituency, using face-to-face interviews verified through GPS-tracked tablets. The firm reported a 95% confidence level and a margin of error of two percentage points. Party-line numbers tracked closely with the candidate figures: 70% of respondents backed DCP, 23.5% backed UDA.
The same poll asked about trust in the IEBC ahead of the vote. 64% of respondents said they trusted the commission to run a free and fair election, 21% didn’t, and 15% were unsure.
On 2027 presidential preferences, Gachagua led the field at 31.4%, followed by Fred Matiang’i at 19.9% and Kalonzo Musyoka at 9.8%. Ruto polled at 6.5%. Just over a quarter of respondents, 28%, hadn’t decided.
Whatever happens on July 16 will be read as a signal for 2027, not just a constituency outcome. A DCP win hands Gachagua real proof he can move Mt Kenya votes without Ruto. A UDA win lets the government argue the region hasn’t actually turned on it, whatever the polls and the noise around Gachagua’s impeachment suggest.
