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Will Museveni accept a Bobi wine win?

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Will Museveni accept a Bobi wine win? This is a question most political pundits are asking themselves as the country approaches the January 14 Parliamentary and Presidential election.

There is no doubt that Bobi Wine has a bright future in Uganda’s politics.

A lot of variables are working in his favor.

He is charismatic, his  route to politics was smoothed by the fact that he was a famous reggae star.

At 38, three quarters of the population is in his age bracket.

Many are educated but unemployed and frustrated, in a large part because Uganda’s weak, $25bn economy (GDP) cannot support over 41 million people.

 Will Museveni accept a Bobi Wine win?

Poverty levels are very high, Wine however is currently not a decisive threat to the regime and I think those too excited are probably naive.

Here is why, President Museveni still has total grip on the country.

His patronage system still permeates the entire socio-political and cultural fabric of Uganda’s society.

He has used his 32 years in power to effectively deploy political clientelism to entrance himself.

Uganda army raids the home of Bobi Wine

His being in power is of enormous benefit to rich and powerful individuals in the regime who are mostly appointed on account of their tribal, cultural, religious and demographic clout. These by extension have enormous influence on the rest of the (mostly rural) population to which they extend some crumbs off the patronage table.

Some people’s entire livelihoods depend on Museveni being at the helm of power. They will fight to ensure he doesn’t go.

Museveni is the military and the military is him. He has it under his total grip largely because he personally formed it from scratch to fight a five year guerrilla war that brought him to power in 1986.

If Bobi becomes a real threat, they would not only throw the kitchen sink at him, but the entire kitchen like they have done with other powerful opposition figures notably Kiiza Besigye.

Bobi Wine has been detained periodically, and dozens of opposition protesters have been killed.

This shows the extent to which President Museveni is willing to go to protect his throne.

Already plans are underway to shut Social Media by Ugandan authorities.

Social media to be shut down in Uganda ahead of January 14 election

The above post is purely the writers opinion and does not in any way represent the entire SasaNews family.

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